WELCOME TO THE

EEC GROUP

ChatGPT Image Nov 7, 2025, 02_05_44 PM (

NEWS

The latest news on papers, grants, and members joining the group!

For regular news updates follow us on bluesky

OVERVIEW

WHAT WE DO

The experimental ecology & conservation group focusses on synthesising information from mathematical models, small-scale experimental systems, and long-term wild population data to learn more about the world around us, and in particular help make decisions about how to best preserve biodiversity into the future.

NOVEL TECHNIQUES

A specific focus is on developing new, exciting, and useful techniques to make the experimental systems we work with more realistic reflections of the world around us.

ITS ALL ABOUT THE BIG PICTURE

But our focus is always on how we can learn more about the natural world without having to carry out invasive or damaging experiments in the field.

Current research topics

1 / Multiple stressors and their impact on ecological forecasting

We study how multiple human-driven stressors, such as climate change and resource extraction, interact to shape wildlife populations. By integrating behaviour, health, demography, and population trends in predictive models, we identify species most at risk and provide science-based guidance for conservation and sustainable policy.

2 / Understanding resilience loss across space and through time

We quantify how and where ecosystems and wildlife populations remain stable or collapse under climate and land-use change. Integrating remote sensing, functional traits, niche theory and global time series, we identify resilience mechanisms, map vulnerability hotspots, and deliver decision-support tools for targeted, proactive conservation.

3 / Effectiveness of protected areas in maintaining resilience in wild populations

We evaluate how effectively protected areas sustain resilient, functioning ecosystems in a changing world. By integrating global biodiversity and population datasets with advanced analytics, we test whether protection strengthens resilience and functional diversity, and identify conditions under which protected areas truly safeguard nature’s contributions to people.

4 / Use of engineered organisms to restore environments

We develop safe, traceable engineered microorganisms to remove pollutants, restore degraded environments, and strengthen ecosystem resilience. Using advanced synthetic biology, realistic testing environments, and strict safeguards, we create interventions that work with nature while prioritising environmental safety and public trust.

5/ Feasibility of rewilding in the UK

We integrate ecology, social science, and economics to identify where reintroducing lost species is both ecologically viable and socially supported, mapping opportunities to restore ecosystem functions, boost rural economies, and guide evidence-based, conflict-sensitive rewilding and land-use decisions.

6 / Testing and developing conservation theory

We use controlled, spatially structured experimental ecosystems to rigorously test key ideas in conservation science, such as species distribution models and metapopulation theory. By linking theory to real-world dynamics, we identify when and how these tools can reliably guide management of threatened, invasive, and other priority species.

PEOPLE

Meet the Team

Associate Professor

DR CHRIS CLEMENTS

My interests centre on the extinction of species and collapse of populations, topics which I investigate using a combination of mathematical models, microcosm experiments, and analysis of real world population data.

My current interests are on resilience loss and the conservation of species in the face of multiple stressors.

Post doctoral researcher

DUNCAN O'BRIEN

My MSc at the University of Essex has led to research interests involving the feedbacks of evolution and environment in shaping ecosystems and its management implications. I am a PhD student at the University of Bristol, exploring the use of early warning signals in predicting aquatic regime shifts via ecological modelling and analysis of long term data sets.

Post doctoral researcher

Joseph Pennycook

I'm interested in using microorganisms to build simulations of natural environments in the lab, both to investigate general principles of ecology and evolution and to help us better understand microbial communities themselves. My current project involves testing the safety and efficacy within various environmental treatments of genetically modified cyanobacteria, which could theoretically be used one day to restore polluted landscapes.

Post doctoral fellow

Trisha Gopalakrishna

I am broadly interested in supporting climate change mitigation, resilience and adaptation across tropical terrestrial ecosystems, specifically aimed at impacting environmental policy and decision making. Currently, I am examining the stability and resilience of tropical savannas to global environmental change. I work at multiple spatial scales using interdisciplinary approaches spanning remote sensing based information and plant functional traits.

PhD student

TANITH HACKNEY

My background in conservation ecology inspired my interest in using science to inform conservation practice and policy at the global scale. My PhD project uses large global datasets to understand the efficacy of protected areas in promoting functional diversity and resilience of waterbird populations, especially in facilitating their ability to resist and recover from current and future threats.

PhD student

MIA ARUNDEL

I developed a passion for U.K.-based rewilding whilst studying for my MSci at the Royal Veterinary College (RVC). This led me to my PhD project which uses species distribution modelling, and geographical information systems (GIS), to garner a better understanding of the feasibility of rewilding across the U.K.

MRes student

SAM APPLEYARD-SANDERSON

Throughout my undergraduate degree I have developed an interest in population ecology and the computational methods we use to further our knowledge of ecosystems. My current research project explores the non-target effects of antiparasitic livestock treatments on decomposer communities. By developing a community simulation model for these effects, we can explore the sensitivity of species and community interactions to the lethal and sublethal effects of harmful chemical residues.

Laboratory technician

Marten Payne

I manage our research lab, in particular maintaining our protist cultures. As well as running preliminary experiments on optimal conditions for protist populations, I am interested in developing new ways to use our robotic gantry, for example using machine learning to automate invertebrate classification. I am also assisting with the "timeline to collapse" research project which investigates the signs exhibited by populations preceding their collapse.

PhD student

ELEANOR STEARN

My project involves employing microcosms to create experimental data to test and assess various Species Distribution Models (SDMs) in equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions. This will allow us to test widely used models across a common set of highly controlled, replicable data to see how they perform and predict given different data quantities and environmental changes.

Based at University of Melbourne and co-supervised with Prof Mick McCarthy

Mres student

Joshua Brown

Birds have captivated me all of my life, taking me from the subarctic to the tropics to better understand and conserve them. My experiences have also given me a passion for helping people connect to wildlife and the environments around them. After an undergraduate degree at McGill University, I wanted to pursue further research to learn how to improve conservation efforts. My research explores bird conservation through quantifying trends and protection measures to inform conservation practice, highlighting places where greater protection will have the most impact.

Alumni

Dr Francesco Cerini

PDRA

Dr Marc Besson

PDRA

Dr Pol Capdevila

PDRA

Dr Jake Britnell

PDRA

Dr Kerry Stewart

PhD

Dr Gaurav Baruah

PhD

Ellie Wolfe

Mres

Julia Roughton Terry

Mres

Olliy Hines

Mres

Nicola Noviello

Mres

Publications

Please give this list a second to load.

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DATA

In line with the principals of open science and data sharing we are striving to make all the data that our lab group generates available via a github repository. This will take some time, but all data going forward will be uploaded to that site, and data from previous experiments (be that laboratory generated or simulation generated) will be made available as soon as possible.

Github data repository

JOIN THE GROUP

We are always looking for enthusiastic members to join the group, from masters students to post docs. Funding for these are available through a number of channels, depending on the career stage.

All opportunities will be posted on our bluesky account

Please feel free to contact me any time to discuss the possibility of apply for one of these schemes and joining our team.

Contact

Available positions

When positions are available links to the adverts will be placed here

CONTACT US

School of Biological Sciences
University of Bristol
Bristol Life Sciences Building
24 Tyndall Avenue
Bristol

England
BS8 1TQ

chrisclementsresearch@gmail.com

Publications

In press

Stewart, K, Venditti, C., Carmona, C., Baker, J., Clements, C., Tobias, J., González-Suárez, M. Threat reduction must be coupled with targeted recovery programmes to conserve global bird diversity, Nature Ecology and Evolution, in press
Vives-Ingla, M., Capdevila, P., Clements, C., Stefanescu, C., Carnicer, J. Novel Regimes of Extreme Climatic Events Trigger Negative Population Rates in a Common Insect. Global Change Biology, in press
Pringle, S., ... Clements, C., ... et al. Opportunities and challenges for monitoring terrestrial biodiversity in the robotics age. Nature Ecology and Evolution, in press

2024

Linke, L., Clements, C. A Sixth Mass Extinction? How linguistic uncertainty shapes our understanding of the biodiversity crisis. Ecology and Evolution 14 (12), e70653
Li, D., Clements, C., Memmott. J. Isolation limits spring pollination in a UK fragmented landscape. PLos one, 19 (9), e0310679
Cerini, F., Jackson, J., Childs, D., Clements, C. Multivariate signals of population collapse in a high-throughput ecological experiment. Ecology, 105 (4), e4257
Johnson, T., Beckerman, A., Childs, D., Griffiths, C., Capdevila, P., Clements, C., Besson, M., Gregory, R., Evans, R., Thomas, G., Delmas, E., Webb, T., Freckleton, R. Overconfidence undermines global wildlife abundance trends. Nature, 628 (8009), 788-794

2023

O'Brien, D., Deb, S., Gal, G., Thackary, S., Dutta, P., Shin-Ichiro, May, L., Clements, C. Early warning signals require critical transitions in empirical lake data. Nature Communications, 7942.
Cerini, F., Wolfe, E., Besson, M., Clements, C. Phenotypic response to different predator strategies can be mediated by temperature. Ecology and Evolution, ece3.10474.
O'Brien, D., Deb, S., Sahil, S., Krishnan, N., Dutta, P., Clements, C. EWSmethods: an R package to forecast tipping points at the community level using early warning signals and machine learning models. Ecography, ecog.06674.
Stewart, K., Carmona, C., Clements, C., Venditti, C., Tobias, J., González-Suárez, M. Trait diversity metrics can perform well with highly incomplete datasets. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 14, 2856-2872
Ledger, S., McRae, L., Loh, J., Almond, R., Boh, M., Clements, C. et al. Past, present, and future of the Living Planet Index. npj Biodiversity, 2, 12.
Li, D., Memmott, J., Clements, C. Corridor quality buffers extinction under extreme droughts in experimental metapopulations. Ecology & Evolution, in press.
Cerini, F., Childs, D., Clements, C. Timeline to collapse. Nature Ecology and Evolution, early online.
O'Brien, D., Gal, G., Thackary, S., Shin-Ichiro, S., Blanchard, J., Clements, C. Planktonic functional diversity changes in synchrony with lake ecosystem state. Global Change Biology, 29, 686-701.
Wolfe, E., Cerini, F., Besson, M., O'Brien, D., Clements, C. Spatiotemporal thermal variation drives diversity trends in experimental landscapes. Journal of Animal Ecology, 92, 430-441.

2022

Besson, M., Alison, J., Bjerge, J., Gorochowski, T., Høye, T., Jucker, T., Mann, H., Clements, C. Towards the fully automated monitoring of ecological communities. Ecology Letters, 25, 2753-2775.
Baruah, G., Ozgul, A., Clements, C. Community structure determines the predictability of population collapse. Journal of Animal Ecology, 91, 1880-1891.
Capdevila, P., Noviello, N., McRae, L., Freeman, R., Clements, C. Global patterns of resilience decline in vertebrate populations. Ecology Letters, 25 (1), 240-251.
Capdevila, P., Noviello, N., McRae, L., Freeman, R., Clements, C. Body mass and latitude as global predictors of vertebrate populations exposure to multiple threats. Ecography, 12, e06309.
Deb, S., Sidheekh, S., Clements, C., Krishnan, N., and Dutta, P. Machine learning methods trained on simple models can predict critical transitions in complex natural systems. Royal Society Open Science, 9: 211475.
Wolfe, E., Hammill, E., Memmott, J., Clements, C. Landscape configuration affects probability of apex predator presence and community structure in experimental metacommunities. Oecologia, 199, 193–204.

2021

O'brien, D., Clements, C. Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves. Biology Letters, 17: 20210487.
Williams, N., McRae, L., Freeman, R., Capdevila, P., Clements, C. Scaling the extinction vortex: Body size as a predictor of population dynamics close to extinction events. Ecology and Evolution, 11, 7069-7079.
Baruah, G., Clements, C., Ozgul, A. Effect of habitat quality and phenotypic variation on abundance- and trait-based early warning signals of population collapses. Oikos, 130, 850-862.
Li, D., Clements, C., Shan, I., Memmott, J. Corridor quality affects net movement, size of dispersers, and population growth in experimental microcosms. Oecologia 195, 547-556.

2020

Arkilanian, A., Clements, C., Ozgul, A., Baruah, G. Effect of time-series length and resolution on abundance- and trait-based early warning signals of population declines. Ecology, in press.
Hammill, E., Clements, C. Imperfect detection alters the outcome of landscape scale management strategies for protected areas. Ecology Letters, 23: 682–691.
Baruah, G., Clements, C., Ozgul, A. Eco-evolutionary processes underlying early warning signals of population decline. Journal of Animal Ecology, 89:436–448.

2019

Clements, C., McCarthy, M., Blanchard, J. Early warning signals of recovery in complex systems. Nature Communications, 10:1681.
- Recommended by F1000
Baruah, G., Clements, C., Guillaume, F., Ozgul, A. When do shifts in trait dynamics precede population declines? The American Naturalist, 193, pp. 633–644.

2018

Clements, C., Ozgul, A. Indicators of transitions in biological systems. Ecology Letters, 21, 905-919.
- Recommended by F1000
Clements, C., Blanchard, J., Nash, K., Hindell, M., Ozgul, A. Reply to ‘Whaling catch data are not reliable for analyses of body size shifts’, Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2, 757–758.

2017

Clements, C., Blanchard, J., Nash, K., Hindell, M., Ozgul, A. Body size shifts and early warning signals preceded the historic collapse of whale stocks. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1, 188.
Carlson, C., Burgio, K., ... Clements, C., ... , Getz, W. (2017). Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate. Science Advances, 3, e1602422.
Weissman, T., Davies, K., Clements, C., Melbourne, B. Estimating extinction risk with minimal data. Biological Conservation, 213, 194-202.
Brooks, M., Clements, C., Pemberton, J., Ozgul, A. Estimation of individual growth trajectories when repeated measures are missing. American Naturalist, 190, 377-388.
Pimiento, C., Griffen, J., Clements, C., Silvestro, D., Varela, S., Uhen, M., Jaramillo, C. The Pliocene marine megafauna extinction and its impact on functional diversity. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1, 1100.
Cizauskas, C., Carlson, C., Burgio, K., Clements, C., Dougherty, E., Harris, N., Phillips, A. (2017). Parasite vulnerability to climate change: an evidence-based functional trait approach.Royal Society Open Science, 4: 160535.

2016

Clements, C., Ozgul, A. Rate of forcing and the forecastability of critical transitions. Ecology & Evolution, 6, 7787-7793.
Dougherty, E., Carlson, C., Bueno, V., Burgio, K., Cizauskas, C., Clements, C., Seidel, D., Harris, N. Paradigms for parasite conservation: adaptive approaches for a neglected target. Conservation Biology, 30, 724-733.
Pimiento, C., MacFadden, B., Clements, C., Velez-Juarbe, J., Jaramillo, C., Silliman, B. Geo- graphic distribution patterns of Carcharocles megalodon over time reveal clues about mechanisms of extinction. Journal of Biogeography, 43, 1645-1655.
Clements, C., Ozgul, A. Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse. Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms10984.

2015

Clements, C., Drake, J., Griffiths, J., Ozgul, A. Factors influencing the detectability of early warning signals of population collapse. The American Naturalist, 186, 50-58.
DeLong, J., Gilbert, B., ..., Clements, C., ..., O'Connor, M. The body-size dependence of trophic cascades. The American Naturalist, 185, 354-366.

2014

Palamara, G., Childs, D., Clements, C., Petchey, O., Plebani, M., Smith, M. Inferring the temperature dependence of population parameters: the effects of experimental design and inference algorithm. Ecology and Evolution, 4, 4567–4811.
McCarthy, M., Moore, A., Krauss, J., Morgan, J., Clements, C. Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory. Conservation Biology, 28, 1575-1583.
Pimiento C., Clements C. When did Carcharocles megalodon become extinct? A new analysis of the fossil record. PLoS ONE, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111086
Frantz, A., McDevitt, A., ..., Clements, C., ...., Burke, T. Re-visiting the phylogeography and demography of European badgers (Meles meles) based on broad sampling, multiple markers and simulations. Nature Heredity, 113, 443-453.
Clements, C., Collen, B., Blackburn, T., Petchey, O. Historic environmental change may affect our ability to infer extinction status. Conservation Biology, 28: 971–981.

Gilbert, B., Tunney, T., McCann, K., ..., Clements, C., ..., O’Connor, M. A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions. Ecology Letters, 17, 902-914
Clements, C., Collen, B., Blackburn, T., Petchey, O. Effects of directional environmental change on extinction dynamics in experimental microbial communities are predicted by a simple model. Oikos, 123, 141-150
- Editor's choice

2013

Clements, C., Warren, P., Collen, B., Blackburn, T., Worsfold, N., Petchey, O. Interactions between assembly order and temperature can alter both short and long-term community composition. Ecology & Evolution, 3(16): 5201–5208
Carlson, C., Cizauskas, C., Burgio, K., Clements, C., Harris, N. The more parasites, the better? Science, 342, p1041
Clements, C. Public interest in the extinction of a species may lead to an increase in donations to a large conservation charity. Biodiversity and Conservation, 22, p.2695-2699.
Clements, C., Worsfold, N., Warren, P., Collen, B., Blackburn, T., Clark, N., Petchey, O. Experimentally testing an extintion estimator: Solow's Optimal Linear Estmation model.Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, p345-354.

Theses

Clements, C. "Extinction and environmental change: testing the predictability of species loss". http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1158947

WELCOME TO THE

EEC GROUP

NEWS

OVERVIEW

WHAT WE DO

NOVEL TECHNIQUES

ITS ALL ABOUT THE BIG PICTURE

Current research topics

1 / Multiple stressors and their impact on ecological forecasting

2 / Understanding resilience loss across space and through time

3 / Effectiveness of protected areas in maintaining resilience in wild populations

4 / Use of engineered organisms to restore environments

5/ Feasibility of rewilding in the UK

6 / Testing and developing conservation theory

PEOPLE

Meet the Team

Alumni

Publications

DATA

JOIN THE GROUP

MASTERS

PHD

POST DOC

Available positions

CONTACT US

Publications

In press

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Theses